RE: Pres in 04??
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#1. American's money in the bank is earning 1.6% in a C.D. Far less in a savings account or money market. It has not been this low since 1959. Seniors who have sold their long non-mortgaged homes and stuck hundreds of thousands in banks to retire on, are no longer earning a living wage on their savings. Under Clinton it was around 6.7%. Under Jimmy Carter it hit 18%, and under Ronald Reagan 9%. Your money in the bank was worth something.
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Keep in mind, that the people that had a mortgage on their homes at that time were paying that much in interest as well. Could you imagine paying 18% on a home loan today? Not to mention taxes. How long ago was it that the top income tax rate was 95%?
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#2. Many people feel that GW has done little towards fighting crime and that he has not been sympathic towards monatary needs of education.
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The PATRIOT act sure is a godawful way to fight crime (no sarcasm there). But crime-fighting isn't really the governments job anyway, nor is education. Of course, as you say, that doesn't stop people from knocking bush for it.
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#3. The economy is terrible! 30% of the people are laid off and 30% of the people are facing lay-offs. Another 30% have taken big pay cuts in order NOT to lose their jobs. Will they blame GW for this? Some will & some will not.
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The economy is starting to rebound, but of course, it isn't going to be a quick recovery. Most people don't realize how little the president actually affects the economy, and the same people either don't realize or choose to ignore that this started under Clinton.
Also, your numbers are just a wee bit inflated. Unemployment is still very low if you look back over the last 20 or 30 years. Everyone i know that wants one still has a job. Everyone i know from college has been able to get a job so far. It's taking longer, and some are getting laid off, but they've thus far been able to get another job in a reasonable amount of time.
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#4. Now the big question. Assuming that 50% are Republicans & 50% are Democrats, he will have to win all Republicans & a good # of Democrats. Can he?
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I think it's more like 25% Republicans and 25% Democrats, with everyone else falling somewhere in the middle. All i can say at this point, is that i hope it's a hard-fought democratic primary, because most of what those guys have been saying is going to alienate the other 50%. I think that if the election happened today, Bush would beat any and all comers. We'll have to see what happens in the next year and a half.
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#5. MY TAKE......
>>>>>It all depends upon who the opposition is !
IMHO the team that could send Bush back to Texas would be McCain/Lieberman ~ but will THAT happen? Who knows? Short of that, I'll bet no money, honey!
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I'd vote for McCain in a heartbeat, and as far as democrats go, i like Lieberman better than any of the rest of them. A mixed ticket like that would really be an interesting thing to see.
The last thing i want to see is Hillary getting the presidency. Her policies scare me (nationalized health care?), she is a cold and calculating woman with no regard for the truth. Short of Jesse Jackson, she is absolutely the last person i want to see in the white house. I hope she runs this time around, because she'll get trounced, and that'll ruin her chances in '08.