This question has bothered me for a long time.
I may be one step closer to cracking the code(at least for me and my '93).
Using my highly developed deductive reasoning powers, I have analyzed my performance numbers from scores of track runs fine tuning a representative sample of ETs versus density altitude numbers.
I have developed the following formula:
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*DA)-FF)
Where...
DA = Density Altitude(feet)
FF = 'Fudge Factor'{highly technical term}
The following table represents the value of "FF" and the corresponding hypothetical percentage of 'covering the spread'.
0.01 ~ 60%
0.02 ~ 72%
0.03 ~ 80%
0.06 ~ 86%
0.07 ~ 88%
0.11 ~ 92%
0.13 ~ 96%
0.16 ~ 99%
As you can see, for a scant 0.030 seconds margin, I can be assured 80% of my runs will be covered by my dial-in.
For example, with track conditions dictating 1800 feet density altitude...
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*DA)-FF)
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*2200)-0.03)
Dial-in = 13.727 + (0.132-0.030)
Dial-in = 13.727 + 0.102
Dial-in = 13.829
Rounding to the nearest hundredth of a second would give a dial-in of 13.83 and I would only 'break out' 20% of the time while maintaining a margin of only 0.030 seconds.
I may be one step closer to cracking the code(at least for me and my '93).
Using my highly developed deductive reasoning powers, I have analyzed my performance numbers from scores of track runs fine tuning a representative sample of ETs versus density altitude numbers.
I have developed the following formula:
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*DA)-FF)
Where...
DA = Density Altitude(feet)
FF = 'Fudge Factor'{highly technical term}
The following table represents the value of "FF" and the corresponding hypothetical percentage of 'covering the spread'.
0.01 ~ 60%
0.02 ~ 72%
0.03 ~ 80%
0.06 ~ 86%
0.07 ~ 88%
0.11 ~ 92%
0.13 ~ 96%
0.16 ~ 99%
As you can see, for a scant 0.030 seconds margin, I can be assured 80% of my runs will be covered by my dial-in.
For example, with track conditions dictating 1800 feet density altitude...
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*DA)-FF)
Dial-in = 13.727 + ((0.00006*2200)-0.03)
Dial-in = 13.727 + (0.132-0.030)
Dial-in = 13.727 + 0.102
Dial-in = 13.829
Rounding to the nearest hundredth of a second would give a dial-in of 13.83 and I would only 'break out' 20% of the time while maintaining a margin of only 0.030 seconds.